Martes, Mayo 8, 2012 | 3:48 AM | 0 Cotton Candy
The Top 10 tech trends for
2012
By Pete Cashmore,
Special to CNN
|
Editor's note: Pete Cashmore is
founder and CEO of Mashable, a popular blog
about tech news and digital culture. He writes regular columns about social
media and tech for CNN.com.
(CNN) -- From the
continuing rise of tablet devices to the daily-deals craze and the return of
the Internet IPO, 2011 has been a transformative year for technology.
The
pace of change has become blisteringly fast, with traditional industries --
bookstores, video-rental chains, newspapers -- crumbling more quickly than we
could have imagined.
Predicting
what will happen in 2012, therefore, is a shot in the dark: A year is virtually
a lifetime in the digital era. And yet we can at least make a guess at what
will happen in the early part of next year simply by looking at the trends that
are shaping the latter half of this year.
Here's
my best estimate of some of the innovation we'll see in 2012:
1. Touch
computing
New input methods will be the
dominant trend of 2012. Tablet computers such as the iPad might seem like a
nice alternative to desktop and laptop computers, but I believe they're more
than that: They're replacements. Just as the command line (remember that?) gave
way to graphical user interfaces, so the mouse will be superseded by
touchscreens.
The signs are obvious: Windows 8
and Mac OS X Lion, the latest desktop operating systems, borrow heavy from
their mobile counterparts. These new interfaces essentially impose a
touchscreen-inspired interface over the traditional desktop environment.
Over time, this half-step will
become a whole one, and mobile operating systems will dominate. The transition
won't be complete by the end of 2012, but we'll be much further down the path,
and using computer mice much less often.
2. Social
gestures
In the social media realm, social
gestures appear to be the leading trend of 2012. Launched by Facebook in September, this so-called "frictionless sharing"
functionality removes the need to click a button to share media with your
friends. Instead, everything you listen to, read or watch is automatically
posted to your profile once you approve the relevant app.
If you've seen apps such as
Spotify or Social Reader in your Facebook news feed, you're already aware of
these features.
The trend makes sense for social
networks: With 800 million people already on Facebook, its growth is bound to
slow. But if sharing becomes automatic, the volume of content on Facebook will
grow at an accelerated pace. There's a big problem, however: Users may be "creeped out" by all this
automated sharing of their Web activity and grow suspicious of the apps using it.
3. NFC
and mobile payments
Google Wallet, Google's
mobile-payment system, may become more widespread in 2012.
Next year is likely to be the
year when mobile payments blossom. While we've seen a great deal of innovation
in mobile payments technology this year -- including the success of Square's iPhone dongle, allowing anyone to accept credit card payments --
2012 is the year of NFC.
What's that, you ask? Near Field
Communication essentially lets you replace your credit cards with your phone:
Wave an NFC-enabled phone near the credit card reader in a store (or taxi cab),
and the money is deducted from your account.
By 2013, 1 in 5 cellphones are
expected to be NFC-equipped. Early
contenders include Google Wallet, Visa Wallet, Serve (by American Express) and
ISIS.
4. Beyond
the iPad
If touch computing is the future,
then the iPad is surely king. And yet the iPad came up against serious
competition in the latter part of 2011: As I wrote previously, I expect the new Amazon Kindle Fire to outsell the
iPad in 2012. Why?
Simply put, the iPad costs $499 while the Fire costs $199.
Amazon's advantages don't stop at
the price point, however: The company owns an entire content store of movies,
e-books, TV shows and other media. With tablet devices, the hardware is
somewhat important but the content available for the device is absolutely
critical: With plenty of media available for the Fire right away, it's an
appealing proposition.
Why does one device constitute an
entire trend? Well, as a true competitor to the iPad emerges, content
producers, distributors and even app developers may have an entirely new
platform on which to push their wares. (And yes, the Kindle Fire does indeed
run Google's Android operating system, but Amazon's version is so unlike other
Android tablets that neither users nor app developers will perceive it as
"yet another Android device" -- it's a whole new platform.)
5. TV
Everywhere
So you thought you'd be able to
watch all your favorite shows online and get rid of your cable subscription for
good? Not so fast!
The cable companies have a
cunning plan: They'll let you watch live TV, plus on-demand movies and TV
shows, on your connected devices if you keep your cable subscription. Dish
Network, Time Warner and Comcast are among those offering the service.
TV Everywhere has been buzzed
about since 2010, of course, and could be a dud -- but the rise of tablet
devices would seem to create increased demand for a "TV in your
hands."
6. Voice
control
Here's another trend that's got a
moderate chance of taking off in 2012: Voice control.
Siri, the voice-control feature
in the iPhone 4S, may spread to other devices.
The novelty of Siri on the iPhone
4S -- which allows you to send texts, create reminders, search the Web and much
more using just your voice -- may be the start of a new trend in voice
controlled devices.
Surely voice control has been
around for years? Yes, but it wasn't very accurate.
Siri and its ilk define a new era
in which we talk, and our devices understand -- often on the first attempt.
Other device makers will likely follow suit. What's more, Apple may use voice control to replace the TV
remote.
7.
Spatial gestures
Other input methods are gaining
traction too: Microsoft's Kinect, for instance, has given rise to interfaces
that use spatial gestures. Just like in "Minority Report," your
devices can be controlled simply by waving your hands in the air.
Thanks to the many innovators who
have hacked Kinect to work with other platforms, we may see more devices using
this input method next year.
8.
Second-screen experiences
"Second-screen
experiences" is a buzz-phase among TV and movie execs these days. It
refers to apps (mainly on the iPad) that listen to the audio output of your TV
and display content related to the show or movie you're watching. The chances
are that you already use your tablet computer or phone while watching TV, so
there's ample opportunity to make the viewing experience a more interactive
one.
Disney already has second-screen
apps for movies such as "The Lion King" and "Bambi," while
multiple TV networks have similar offerings: We can expect many, many more to
be released in 2012.
9.
Flexible screens
Personally, I just can't wait for
flexible screens: These awesome new bendable interfaces will let you zoom in, zoom out and scroll around a
page simply by twisting your phone or tablet.
Nokia and Samsung have both
hinted they may release phones with bendable displays in 2012. The really
exciting stuff, however -- like paper-thin devices that roll up to fit in your
pocket -- is still years away.
10. HTML5
Can I squeeze in one more trend?
It's HTML5 -- the fifth iteration of the HTML standard -- and it lets
developers create richer, more interactive applications than ever.
Why does this matter? As
developers tire of building applications for every operating system out there
-- from Android to iOS to Windows Phone and beyond -- HTML5 offers the
opportunity to build an app once and have it work everywhere.
The rise of HTML5 is bound to be
accelerated by a recent revelation: Adobe is killing off Flash for
mobile devices, meaning
one of the primary methods of serving videos and rich applications on mobile
phones is about to disappear. HTML5 will fill that gap. For us as consumers,
that means richer applications and experiences on all our devices.
In short, 2012 is all about new
ways to interact with our devices through touch and voice control, new
lightweight ways to share content, a revolution in mobile payments and a
plethora of rich Web applications -- not to mention the hundreds of new
innovations that we've yet to dream up. I can't wait.
Insights:
There's no
doubt the tablet is here to stay, but I don't think they're the death knell for
traditional input devices like a keyboard and mouse, especially in a desktop
environment. I wouldn't/won't mind getting rid of the big box, but until
they're no longer an option I'm keeping my keyboard, trackball and big screen.
I can type much faster than I can stab one finger at a pane of glass.
It's one thing to swipe or poke at something you're holding in your hand, but I think few people will want to do that at their desk all day long (though most of us could use the exercise). Anyone remember light pens or the first go-around of 'touch-screen' on the old CRT monitors? They didn't die because they were bad technology, they died because it's easier to use a mouse.
And while I can see voice recognition augmenting the input process in a desktop environment, I'm hard pressed to see how it would completely replace a keyboard. A great addition for when I'm on-the-go, but I wouldn't want to sit and talk to my computer all day.
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